Simple question: what will be the percentage difference between the S&P500 at the opening bell on the first trading day of 2026, compared to the closing bell on the last trading day of 2026.

AI bubbles correction? interest rate cuts?

Note these are days and hours in which the U.S. market is open, and not any after hours trading, or trading on international markets in different time

Resolution criteria

The market resolves based on the percentage change of the S&P 500 between the opening price on the first trading day of 2026 and the closing price on the last trading day of 2026. Only regular market hours (9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET) count; after-hours trading is excluded. Resolution prices should be verified via Yahoo Finance S&P 500 historical data or MarketWatch S&P 500.

Background

The S&P 500 is up approximately 17% year-to-date through early December 2025, continuing a strong bull market. In 2023, the S&P 500 rallied over 24%, and 2024 saw solid gains as well.