Resolution Criteria
This market resolves YES if, by June 30, 2026, either:
Official Chinese authorities (police, prosecutors, or courts) publicly announce a criminal investigation or charges related to Yu Menglong's death being murder, or
Credible leaked evidence (verified by multiple independent sources) emerges confirming murder
This market resolves NO if no such official investigation or verified leaked evidence surfaces by the deadline. The resolution does not require a conviction, only confirmation of murder through official investigation or credible leaked evidence.
Background
Yu Menglong, a popular Chinese actor in his thirties, died in Beijing on September 11, 2025. Police labeled the death an "accidental fall" involving alcohol, then swiftly ruled out criminal activity without going into detail. Within hours, authorities announced their investigation was closed, declaring the death resulted from an accidental fall following alcohol consumption. The speed of investigation seemed unusual to observers accustomed to more thorough handling of high-profile celebrity cases.
Petitions demanding justice for Yu Menglong and reinvestigation of his death gathered over 600,000 signatures by November 2025, eventually exceeding 700,000 signatures by early December 2025. A team of women from across China traveled to Beijing, walked the crime sites themselves, cross-checked weather patterns, audio spectrograms, and surveillance shadows — and produced the most rigorous, detailed independent investigation seen since the case began.
Considerations
As of now, no criminal charges have been filed, no suspects have been officially identified, and no new evidence has emerged to contradict the official findings. While extensive online speculation and unverified allegations have circulated, a verified list of alleged suspects has not been published by any credible outlet. The number appears to have originated from online discussions rather than from formal police documents. The case involves significant censorship within China, making official disclosure of murder findings uncertain even if evidence exists.
1,000