if openai overtakes google on lmarena in 2025, will google take it back also in 2025?
13
100Ṁ674
Dec 31
15%
chance

If no openai model overtakes google's model with highest Arena score on https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control before 2026, market resolves N/A.

If some openai model does overtake all of google's models, resolves YES if google subsequently overtakes openai again in 2025. Resolves NO otherwise.

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opened a Ṁ300 YES at 15% order

@Bayesian order up

@jim ik what you're doing jim

obviously they might take it back due to the inherent arena score volatility

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