V4 (DeepSeek) release date
46
1.4kṀ12k
Jan 1
18%
Before 2026
50%
Before February 2026
68%
Before March 2026
84%
Before April 2026

Minor changes to the name, such as using "V5" instead of "V4", are acceptable when determining the release.

To count as released, the model must be accessible to some people outside DeepSeek. if it's banned in the US but releases in China this market would still resolve YES. If it is available through some API only this counts as a release.

See also:

/Bayesian/grok-42-xai-release

/Bayesian/when-will-xai-release-grok-5

/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-gpt6

/Bayesian/when-will-anthropic-release-claude-qZd5QEQ225 ‌‌‌‌‌

/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-r2 ‌ ‌

/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-v4 (this market)‌

/Bayesian/when-will-meta-release-llama-5-6h9UypqOdp ‌

/Bayesian/when-will-alibaba-release-qwen-4

/Bayesian/when-will-moonshot-release-kimi-k3

/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-their-next

/Bayesian/when-will-thinking-machines-announc

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