Is the 20th Busy Beaver number independent of set theory?
18
1kṀ586
9999
47%
chance

This resolves according to the resolution of conjecture 11 from this paper:

Conjecture 11: ZF does not prove the value of BB(20).

This question resolves when the conjecture is resolved, YES or NO according to whether the conjecture is true or false.

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Which set theory? I'm assuming ZFC

@khang2009 No as the conjecture in the link says, this is plain ZF

This is very probably true, as in YES > 95% chance, but I am not counting on the resolution criteria holding that up.

predictedNO

@DavidBolin What criteria should it use?

Sorry for lateness in responding to comments. Close date updating to 9999.

Like, by EOY 2023? How will you know the answer by that time?

@wadimiusz Agreed. The question is interesting (it's from Scott Aaronson's survey paper), the close date is not. Close date should be decades away or more, IMO.

How are you gonna resolve this, though?

I think your markets are very cool.

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