Will a Republican win in the following US Senate 2026 elections?
52
3.4kṀ19k
2026
96%
South Dakota
95%
West Virginia
95%
Montana
95%
Arkansas
95%
Alabama
95%
Tennessee
95%
Idaho
95%
South Carolina
94%
Wyoming
94%
Oklahoma
94%
Mississippi
94%
Kentucky
94%
Louisiana
92%
Kansas
89%
Florida (Special)
73%
Texas
72%
Iowa
67%
Nebraska
64%
Alaska
59%
Ohio (Special)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections

  • Update 2025-07-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - An independent candidate who caucuses with the Republican party will not count as a Republican for the purposes of this market's resolution.

US Politics
Politics
2024 US Presidential Election
Democratic Party
2026 US Election
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Does this include independents who intend to caucus with the Republicans, should there be any?

@EvanDaniel I’ll say no, as Manifold’s 2024 markets treated all independents as “Other” party.

bought Ṁ10 NO

Can you add Ohio and Florida?

@ZaneMiller Added

bought Ṁ25 YES

Susan Collins unbeatable

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