Conflict of interest:

• I profit from the switch to N/A as I had a small No position, so would've lost Mana otherwise

• I might be the top pro-N/A guy around here

First of all: Thank you, @InvestorOakmont, you noticed you didn't fully specify clear criteria and, given the information you had, made the right choice to N/A this market.

What bothers me, at least a little? If Yes holders had been more vocal or quicker to comment, this might well have stayed a clear Yes. Or it might have turned into a case for the mods. In that situation, guidelines and lived practice would have been to tell the creator "It's perfectly within your judgement as creator to resolve this Yes" (Or "resolve No", as long as there is no obvious and deliberate misresolution, creators are given full power over their markets, no matter how unfair anything besides N/A would be). So while I applaud resolving this N/A, the way this depended on the commenters' determination and timing seems not optimal.

Pinging @dreev: I can now better understand one of your anti-N/A stances.

This one may actually differ depending on which platform you use to check the price

but fwiw kalshi seems to be above 88k so this should probably resolve no, or NA because no specified price checker was mentioned

Yahoo had the minute close above 88k so I think this leans more to resolving no

same with coinbase, I think this resolves no

@InvestorOakmont

@Mochi I see Coinbase as YES, $87,969.55 at the 23:59 (UTC+1) candle close, which is the correct one (you can see verify the candles are timestamped at the start of them). Same close with the 15-min, 1h candles, etc.

1-min: 23:59

15-min: 23:45

1h: 23:00

@deagol I guess this one is unclear depending on the price checker. Kalshi resolved above 88k which uses a benchmark real time index

@Mochi yes I do see CoinMarketCap above which is an index, although the chart granularity isn't great. And here's a few more below:

Binance

Bitstamp

Kraken

The only exchange I found above is Bitfinex but I haven't looked at more obscure ones.

@deagol For me I generally believe kalshi as the source of truth which uses the cfbenchmarks price https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/data/indices/BRTI?ref=blog.cfbenchmarks.com

With the various prices in different sites I feel this market should probably be NAed as there was no specified benchmark.

@mods can i get an opinion here? I don’t think this should resolve yes. As there is clear evidence of ambiguity for resolving this market either way without any prior specified resolution methodology in the description.

@Mochi whaat? Sorry but this is YES

Yesterday (for me, im french), bitcoin was below 88k

You can contact me on discord: cedzee

If you want to discuss about this

@InvestorOakmont what is the source you are using to check the price? As you mentioned you are looking at the price at midnight which is 3pm PST, there were some platforms showing below 88k, some showing above 88k at exactly this time. In fact, Kalshi uses the real time aggregate index which showed above 88k at midnight time you specified. I don’t see how it was a clearly YES resolution.

@Mochi Google finance, I thought it was reliable?

@InvestorOakmont i can’t find the exact close price at midnight French time on google finance. I just see an average price which is not accurate. The point is that there are many conflicting sources of data for resolution here (yahoo, cfbenchmarks, bitfinex showing >88k, coinbase, kraken showing <88k.) And you never specified the resolution data source, so I think it’s unfair to just look at one data source and resolve the market that way.

@InvestorOakmont you can check the messages we have in this chat thread to see the conflicting evidence for resolving this market YES or NO without a specified data source. So I believe for the sake of fairness this should be NAed.

@Mochi Yes I completely agree, it's my fault for not having specified the source where I check (I thought it was the same everywhere and it surprises me that it is not)

I don't know how to change the results, if that's possible.

I'll clarify everything next time, I promise.

@InvestorOakmont thanks for understanding. Glad you agree. @mods could you help with changing the results? Thanks!

@Mochi @InvestorOakmont N/Aing as requested by the creator 👍 Thanks for the healthy convo and consensus y'all!

Just FYI, it's 11:05pm right now in Paris France. And BTC is 87,100.

12:00am (midnight) is considered the next day, right? So we'll know the answer in 45 min? Or does it technically need to be 1:00am the next day?

Is it about the price at the end of the day, or at any point within the day? Either way, what timezone?

@InvestorOakmont ping

@vee hello, its about price at the end of the day

@InvestorOakmont thanks, and the timezone?

@deagol Paris (France)