Will async SGD become the main large-scale NN optimization method before 2031?
3
100Ṁ151
2031
78%
chance
5

Resolves as YES if asynchronous stochastic gradient descent becomes dominant in large scale neural network optimization before January 1st 2031.

Machine Learning
Deep Learning
Optimization
Stochastic Gradient Descent
Neural networks
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1983232397249524175

People are also trading

Will the largest AI training run in 2025 utilize Sophia, Second-order Clipped Stochastic Optimization?
4% chance
Will we see a public GPU compute sharing pool for LLM model training or inference before 2026 ?
82% chance
Will the largest machine learning training run (in FLOP) as of the end of 2025 be in the United States?
91% chance
Will the state-of-the-art AI model use latent space to reason by 2026?
3% chance
100GW AI training run before 2031?
33% chance
Will we see the emergence of a 'super AI network' before 2035 ?
72% chance
10GW AI training run before 2029?
20% chance
1GW AI training run before 2027?
75% chance
By the time we reach AGI, will backpropagation be used in its weights optimization?
61% chance
What will be the parameter count (in trillions) of the largest neural network by the end of 2030?
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules