Gemini 3's execution time-horizon?
20
1.5kṀ1696Dec 31
1,794 steps
expected1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
22%
100-1000
57%
1000-2000
14%
2000-4000
6%
4000-10000
On the task described in https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.09677, what will be the length of tasks that Gemini 3 will be able to complete in one go?
I'm an author, and I will run the same setup above^ to resolve this.
Currently:
GPT-5 Thinking is 1024
Claude 4 Sonnet is 432
Grok-4 is 384
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Gemini 3's 50% time horizon, per METR
Is Gemini 3.0 basically state of the art at everything?
POLL
Gemini 3.0 Pro outperforms GPT-5 on METR 50% time horizon?
79% chance
Opus 4.5's METR time horizon beats Gemini 3.0 Pro's?
73% chance
Gemini 3 flash release in November 2025?
4% chance
Before 2026, will Gemini 3.0 exceed GPT-5 in Metr estimated time horizon?
77% chance
Gemini 3 Deep Think available on API in 2025?
35% chance
Will GPT-5.1 have a longer METR time horizon than Gemini 3?
48% chance
How many will Gemini 3.0 achieve? [Read description]
2.49