Credible evidence Donald Trump has dementia emerges by 2028
22
173Ṁ968
2028
42%
chance

This will resolve based on mainstream media reports. Any kind of dementia counts. Outside speculation does not count, unless the evidence is so strong that mainstream media consensus emerges.

https://www.newsweek.com/stop-talking-about-bidens-mental-acuity-start-talking-about-trumps-signs-dementia-opinion-1853741

I do not bet on my markets.

Politics
Trump
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

Is there a version of this for Biden?

@squirrelfish Yes, parallel markets for Joe Biden just created.

People are also trading

Credible evidence Donald Trump has dementia emerges by 2026
+10% 1d16% chance
Credible evidence Donald Trump has dementia emerges by 2030
+10% 1d76% chance
Credible evidence Joe Biden has dementia emerges by 2026
9% chance
Will Donald Trump still be relevant in US politics by 2028?
90% chance
Will Trump having serious health troubles during his second term be revealed before 2031?
71% chance
Is Donald Trump already suffering the effects of dementia?
21% chance
Credible evidence Joe Biden has dementia emerges by 2028
46% chance
Will Donald Trump assert an insanity or diminished capacity defense in any of his criminal cases by December 31, 2025?
1% chance
Credible evidence Joe Biden has dementia emerges by 2030
56% chance
Will it be confirmed by the Trump Administration before June 30, 2026 that Donald Trump has been treated for Alzheimer’?
+5% 1d13% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules