This is an experimental market given the fluidity of the underlying policy. As part of the Inflation Reduction Act, Congress passed the 45X tax credit, which provides a credit for producing some manufacturing products in the United States. There has been some speculation that Republicans will modify this policy as part of their upcoming reconciliation bill.
At the end of 2025, what will be the status of 45X?
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None of the options are perfectly correct, but "No changes" is by far the closest (only credits for wind energy will be phased out early).
@ian It would be nice to have an idea of how the mods would approach resolving this (which of course would end up being irrelevant if the creator showed up).
@SimonWestlake I probably won't heavily research this myself, but gemini seems to think phasing out after 2030 is the correct answer:
https://gemini.google.com/share/fbf695be9b83
@ian Here's a good article explaining that the final OBBA did not accelerate phase-out compared to the original IRA (except for components for wind energy): https://www.millerchevalier.com/publication/obbba-brings-45x-changes-though-not-wholesale-repeal
And here's the actual relevant part from the amended law, which shows that Gemini was wrong about the end of the phase-out being bumped up by a year to the end of 2031: https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?req=45x&f=treesort&fq=true&num=3&hl=true&edition=prelim&granuleId=USC-prelim-title26-section45X
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(ii) Phase out percentage for applicable critical minerals other than metallurgical coal
The phase out percentage under this clause is equal to-
(I) in the case of any applicable critical mineral produced during calendar year 2031, 75 percent,
(II) in the case of any applicable critical mineral produced during calendar year 2032, 50 percent,
(III) in the case of any applicable critical mineral produced during calendar year 2033, 25 percent, and
(IV) in the case of any applicable critical mineral produced after December 31, 2033, 0 percent.
@ian Also, Gemini says it ruled out "no changes" because there were changes, but from the options provided, it seems clear to me that the market creator was mainly asking about phase-out or cancellation changes, not specific tweaks to the law.
@ian Thanks for engaging btw, I'm sure we'll finish this in a few weeks.
BTW, a much more interesting way to use Gemini would be to give it the actual law before (https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2024/10/28/2024-24840/advanced-manufacturing-production-credit) and after (https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?req=45x&f=treesort&fq=true&num=3&hl=true&edition=prelim&granuleId=USC-prelim-title26-section45X), and to edit the "no changes" option in its prompt to something like "No changes to 45X phase-out timeline"