Resolves to YES if any LLM released in 2026 exceeds the superforecaster baseline on ForecastBench by July 2027.

Resolves to NO if this does not happen, or if after January 1, 2027 we have results from enough LLMs (e.g. the leading models from the major AI labs at the time) to be confident this will not occur.

If The Forecasting Research Institute tells us how this market should resolve, then we will go with what they say.