When will the CFTC take action against Polymarket?
11
1kṀ1463
2030
7%
2025
24%
2026
13%
2027
12%
2028
17%
2029
17%
Not by end of 2029/never

This must be of such importance as: a fine, a lawsuit, and open to other suggestions.

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fines solely , during only 2026: https://manifold.markets/nowayitsfree/will-polymarketcom-be-fined-by-us-g

I'm a little confused by this. The CFTC took action against Polymarket in January of 2022.

@Domer you never know when the empire will strike back

@Domer resolves yes for all the options (not the last)

Should the probabilities sum to 1 if this market is efficiently priced?

@NoaNabeshima This isn't just a 'next' take action, they could take action against polymarket multiple times

People are also trading

US state/federal regulatory apparatus takes another action against Polymarket before January 1, 2026
10% chance
Will Polymarket get investigated by the CFTC again before 2027?
25% chance
Will Polymarket take more steps to verify that US citizens are not trading on their website before January 1, 2026?
5% chance
Will the CFTC file regulatory action against Manifold because of sweepstakes before the end of 2025?
3% chance
How Polymarket will change after lauching Polymarket US?
Will Polymarket.com be fined by U.S. government regulatory agencies in 2026?
28% chance
Will Polymarket U.S. trading be publicly available to anyone by the end of February 2026?
26% chance
Will the CFTC file regulatory action against Manifold Markets for transactions involving the exchange of mana by 2030?
13% chance
Which year will legal action first be taken against Manifold Markets by any governmental entity ?
When will Polymarket start charging a fee?
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