New METR SOTA by EOY? | Manifold

New METR SOTA by EOY?

2

100Ṁ105

Dec 31

77%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves YES if any model surpasses a 50% time-horizon of 2h 42m on https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-complete-long-tasks/ by EOY

Update 2025-12-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The model must be scored by end of year (not just released by end of year).

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Does it have to be scored by the end of the year or does the model have to be released by the end of the year

@BenAybar scored

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