When will ClaudePlaysPokemon defeat Giovanni in Silph Co? (Extended)
5
1kṀ1226
2026
11%
Before Dec 16
24%
Before Dec 19
35%
Before Dec 23
50%
Before Dec 30
59%
Before Jan 6, 2026
66%
Before Jan 13
70%
Before Jan 20
74%
Before Jan 27
77%
Before Feb 3
78%
Before Feb 10

All dates are Pacific Time. Based on the current Opus 4.5 run only; if it is reset before defeating Giovanni all answers resolve NO.

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I realized a bug in the mathematical model I was using and the updated version is slightly more optimistic!

Note that the buckets aren't equal here; they get larger at first and then they're a week each.

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