This market resolves to the exact number of 25-basis-point rate cuts made by the Federal Reserve in 2026, including any cuts at the December FOMC meeting.

Emergency cuts outside scheduled FOMC meetings also count. The market remains open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to capture such actions.

Rate cuts are counted as follows:

• Each 25 bps of total reduction = 1 cut

• Cuts of 1–24 bps = 1 cut

• Example: A 50 bp cut counts as 2 cuts

The market will resolve early to “No” if the target number of cuts becomes impossible (e.g., more cuts have already occurred than the strike allows).

Resolution Sources:

• Official FOMC statements for all 2026 meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

• The Federal Reserve’s published target rate level and changes: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

• Update 2025-12-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If there are both rate cuts and rate increases during 2026, the market will resolve based on the net sum total of basis points changed throughout the year.

Example: If the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps but later raises rates by 25 bps, this would count as a net 25 bps cut (1 cut).