Market Description
This market is a ranking competition in which animals are evaluated across three traits: Strength, Intelligence, and Likability.
Scoring System
For each trait, I will rank 10 selected animals.
Ranks 1 through 10 will earn 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 points respectively.
An animal’s overall score is the sum of the points it receives across all three trait rankings.
The animal with the highest overall score will be declared the winner of this market.
While personal preference and subjective judgment cannot be eliminated entirely, I will make a good-faith effort to answer questions and explain how I evaluate each trait and determine relative rankings.
Eligible Animals
At a cut-off time (to be announced), I will select the 10 animals that I believe have the strongest prospects of winning.
Only these 10 selected animals will be considered for all trait rankings and overall scoring.
Market will remain open for trading for a period of time to allow prices to settle down based on the 10 selected animal list.
Market Resolution
The market will resolve based on the animal that finishes with the highest overall score under the scoring system described above.
The market close date and cut-off date will be announced once finalized. The cut-off will likely be set with some randomness to reduce last-minute sniping.
Notes:
If a subspecies appears superior to a general animal species, I may replace the existing option with that subspecies if traders suggest it.
(Example: I could replace “shark” with “great white shark” if it performs significantly better in Strength.)
I do not consider human an eligible option for this market
[Clarification] this market doesn't always follow the scientific definition of "species." If you have doubt about what a newly added answer is valid, ask me before adding/betting on it.
Update 2025-12-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Strength will be evaluated as absolute strength (not relative to body weight or size).
Update 2025-12-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Only animals that have existed on Earth are eligible. Fictional or mythological animals (e.g., from D&D, fantasy) are not eligible. Extinct animals like dinosaurs or dodos are eligible since they once lived on Earth.
Update 2025-12-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Subspecies handling: If an option is a subspecies of a general animal already in the market, it will be disqualified. The creator may update the general animal option to that subspecies if enough traders believe it is superior to the average member of that species. (Example: African Savanna Elephant is a subspecies of Elephant and would be disqualified, but Elephant could be updated to African Savanna Elephant if traders suggest it.)
Update 2025-12-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The top 10 animals will be selected within the next 5 days (exact time not announced to discourage sniping). The creator will consider both market price and comment discussion when selecting the top 10, meaning high betting alone does not guarantee an option will be among the top 10.
Update 2025-12-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Subspecies are not allowed as separate options. The creator considers "elephant" to be one species for the purposes of this market (referring to all kinds of elephants collectively), even though biologically there are multiple elephant species. This means elephant species/subspecies cannot be split into separate competing options.
Update 2025-12-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Naming convention for subspecies/species: An animal option will be disqualified if it is commonly referred to by the name of a broader category already in the market. For example, "African Savanna Elephant" is disqualified because it is commonly called "Elephant" (which is already an option), whereas "Mammoth" is not disqualified because it is not commonly called "Elephant" despite being related.
Update 2025-12-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is soliciting feedback on whether to rename the Elephant option to African Savanna Elephant. Traders can like the creator's comment to indicate support for this change if they believe the African Savanna Elephant is superior to the average elephant.
Update 2025-12-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Only one option containing the string "elephant" will be allowed in this market. Multiple elephant species/subspecies cannot exist as separate competing options.
Update 2025-12-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The final top 10 animals that will be ranked and scored are:
Elephant (African Savanna Elephant)
Orca
Wooly mammoth
Sperm whale
Brachiosaurus
Orangutan
Bonobo
Chimpanzee
Dog
Tyrannosaurus Rex
Only these 10 animals will be evaluated for Strength, Intelligence, and Likability rankings to determine the market winner.
Update 2025-12-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market will close on December 16, 2025 at 11:00 PM ET.
Update 2025-12-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on subspecies/variants in top 10: The creator acknowledges including 3 variants of monkey (Chimpanzee, Orangutan, and Bonobo) in the top 10. Traders were not under the impression that only one would be considered valid, and the creator did not plan to rule out 2 of them, so all three were considered valid answers when making the list.
Clarification on dinosaur strength comparison: It is not objective that one dinosaur (T-Rex vs Brachiosaurus) is definitively stronger and smarter than the other. Both remain in the top 10.
1,000People are also trading
Don't fully understand why elephant is trading at such a premium to mammoth or orca to sperm whale. Sperm whales are pretty unambiguously stronger than orca, as they're about an order of magnitude larger. They also have the largest brain on Earth, although orca have more cortex neurons (once again I think cortex neuron count is pretty dumb but whatever). Even if we give orca the lead on intelligence, I think it's quite plausible that Ammon views Sperm Whales as more likable than the brutal, savage killer whales.
While woolly mammoths are likely on average slightly smaller than African elephants, most sources I can find online seem to think they'd be stronger, with thicker legs and more muscle mass, and perhaps being more massive even, despite their smaller size. Once again, up to Ammon as to which of the two is more likable, but mammoths are pretty likable, tbh! They have fur! Ancient humans were obsessed with them!
@bens there's an case to be made for orcas being likable, but there is much less of one for sperm whales being likable imo
and perhaps being more massive even, despite their smaller size
Could you explain this one
@Bayesian I think sperm whales are quite likable. There was once an entire industry devoted to acquiring them! There are far more unique intangible human cultural heritage traditions built around sperm whales than orca:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scrimshaw
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sperm_whaling
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ambergris
@bens If only there was a close relative to elephants and mammoths that was even larger than both... sorry
@TiredCliche many animals eat prey that still contain fecal matter.. or even their own like Rabbits and Hares
@JussiVilleHeiskanen Humans are created in the image of God, and have free will, unlike any other creature. We have knowledge of right and wrong.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen I am biased; in my culture, "eat shit" is an insult. If French people are cool with eating birdshit, I would direct your points to them. This is me trying to be nice and liberal and multicultural.
@TiredCliche Yes, well they too cover themselves with a towel, supposedly to hide from god... so there is some amour propre involved. I just am of sterner stuff.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen I literally have no idea what you are talking about. I maintain my point that toying with animals for hours before killing them is wrong.
Maybe you can convince me otherwise in the morning.
All while not paying taxes. Additionally, they cross the U.S. maritime border without following legal procedures and fish in U.S. waters without obtaining the required American fishing licenses